Flat Cotton Output Triggers Calls for Policy Reforms in Pakistan 2025
Pakistan’s cotton sector is once again under pressure as the latest report by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) shows a flat output trend, unstable arrivals, and rising stress on the ginning, spinning, and textile value chain. Cotton, long considered the backbone of Pakistan’s textile economy, is failing to meet national demand — and experts warn that without immediate policy reforms, the crisis will deepen.
This detailed article explains the current cotton situation in Pakistan, reasons behind low output, economic impact, expert opinions, and urgent reforms needed to revive the struggling industry.
Overview of Cotton Arrivals in 2025
According to new PCGA data released on December 4, 2025, total cotton arrivals as of Nov 30 have reached 5,133,620 bales, slightly down from last year’s 5,190,725 bales. The reduction, although not massive, highlights a continuing stagnation in production rather than the growth Pakistan urgently needs.
Key Statistics (Nov 30, 2025)
- Total Arrivals: 5.13 million bales
- Last Year Arrivals: 5.19 million bales
- Unsold Stocks: 667,257 bales
- Expected Production: 5.5 million bales (estimate by Karachi Cotton Brokers Association)
The numbers indicate that Pakistan is producing less cotton, consuming less, and importing more, which directly increases the economic burden on the textile sector.
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Provincial Breakdown: Punjab Faces Shortfall While Sindh Slightly Improves
Cotton performance varies across provinces.
Punjab’s Production Declines by 4.49%
Punjab, the largest cotton-producing region, has reported a shortfall of 110,437 bales compared to last year — a 4.49% decline. This is alarming because Punjab contributes the highest share of national cotton.
Reasons for Punjab’s Decline
- Farmers shifting to sugarcane and rice (more profitable crops)
- Extreme weather events
- Pest attacks (especially whitefly and pink bollworm)
- No stable government support price to encourage cotton cultivation
Sindh Shows Slight Growth
Sindh has recorded a minor increase in cotton arrivals, but experts say the improvement is not enough to uplift the national output.
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Why Cotton Supply Is Not Matching National Demand
The domestic textile sector requires over 15 million bales every year, but Pakistan is currently producing not even 40% of its annual need. This massive gap forces the government and private sector to spend billions of dollars on cotton imports, putting pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
Key Factors Behind Low Local Cotton Production
- Lack of Research and Innovation
Pakistan has failed to introduce high-yielding, pest-resistant cotton varieties. - Climate Vulnerability
Heatwaves, unpredictable rains, and floods have damaged cotton fields. - Pest Infestation
Whitefly and pink bollworm remain major enemies of cotton farmers. - Absence of Support Price
Unlike wheat or sugarcane, cotton farmers do not receive a guaranteed minimum price. - Cheaper Imports
Textile mills prefer imported cotton due to better quality and lower cost. - Low Profitability for Farmers
Switching to rice and sugarcane gives farmers higher profits and lower risk.
Uncontrolled Imports Are Hurting Local Ginners and Spinners
Industry experts highlight that excessive import of cotton yarn and fabrics, especially from China, has destroyed the local spinning sector.
Impact on Faisalabad – Pakistan’s Largest Yarn Market
Ihsanul Haq of the Cotton Ginners Forum warns:
“Faisalabad is facing the worst economic crisis in its history due to massive imports.”
Effects include:
- Declining sales of local yarn
- Ginning mills shutting down
- Thousands of workers at risk of unemployment
- Weakened competitiveness of Pakistani textiles
Imports are cheaper, better quality, and readily available — but they harm local production and jobs.
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Ginning and Spinning Sector Under Stress
The stagnation in cotton arrivals has put the ginning sector under extreme pressure. Ginners depend on continuous supply; when production is low, their mills operate below capacity, increasing their operational costs.
Economic Stress on Ginners & Spinners
- Lower cotton supply → higher per-bale processing cost
- Reduced profitability
- Old machinery cannot be upgraded due to financial losses
- Some spinning units are reducing shifts or shutting down
If the situation continues, Pakistan may lose a major portion of its textile processing capacity.
Experts Demand Policy Reforms to Save Cotton Sector
Several experts linked with cotton research, trade, and textile manufacturing are calling for urgent policy reforms to revive the cotton industry.
1. Introduce a Viable Support Price
Sajid Mahmood from the Central Cotton Research Institute (CCRI) strongly emphasizes the need for a minimum support price (MSP). Farmers will only grow cotton if they are guaranteed a profit.
2. Improve Cotton Research and Seed Technology
Pakistan’s cotton seeds are outdated and low-quality. Experts recommend:
- Introducing Bt cotton varieties with better pest resistance
- Developing climate-resilient cotton seeds
- Investing in biotechnology and modern research
3. Combat Pest Infestation
Special programs are needed to tackle:
- Whitefly
- Pink bollworm
- Leaf curl virus
Integrated pest management should be promoted through farmer training and subsidies.
4. Restrict Unchecked Imports
Authorities must discourage unnecessary import of yarn and fabric to protect the local industry. Temporary tariffs or import regulations may be needed.
5. Subsidies for Modern Ginning Technologies
Pakistan’s ginning equipment is outdated. Experts call for modern machines to improve quality and reduce waste.
6. Water Management and Climate Resilience
Proper irrigation, drip systems, and water-saving technologies are essential for cotton growth.
Economic Consequences If the Crisis Continues
If Pakistan fails to reform its cotton policy:
- Import bill will rise further
- Textile exports will suffer, reducing foreign exchange earnings
- Ginners, spinners, and farmers will face financial collapse
- Unemployment will rise, especially in rural areas
- Pakistan may permanently lose global textile competitiveness
Cotton contributes significantly to Pakistan’s GDP, employment, and exports. If not addressed urgently, the crisis may become irreversible.
What Can the Government Do? – Recommended Actions
To revive the cotton sector, policymakers must:
Short-Term Actions
- Fix a support price for the next season
- Provide loans and subsidies to cotton farmers
- Regulate yarn and fabric imports
- Launch immediate pest-control programs
Long-Term Actions
- Strengthen cotton research institutes
- Introduce genetically improved cotton varieties
- Upgrade irrigation systems
- Promote international partnerships for technology transfer
A national-level cotton revival plan is urgently required.
Future Outlook for Pakistan’s Cotton Sector
Experts estimate that 2025 production may reach 5.5 million bales, but this falls far short of national demand. Without a structured policy, Pakistan will keep relying on imports.
However, if reforms are introduced — including better seed technology, MSP, and protection from imports — the cotton industry can revive and again contribute strongly to economic growth.
FAQs About Cotton Output Decline in Pakistan
1. Why is cotton production low in Pakistan?
Due to poor seed quality, climate issues, pest attacks, and lack of government support price.
2. How many cotton bales does Pakistan need annually?
Pakistan needs 15 million+ bales every year for its textile sector.
3. How many bales were produced in 2025?
Around 5.13 million bales had arrived by Nov 30, and total production is expected to reach 5.5 million bales.
4. Which pests are damaging cotton crops?
Whitefly, pink bollworm, and leaf curl virus.
5. Why are farmers switching crops?
Sugarcane and rice offer higher profits and lower risk compared to cotton.
